The townhouse and condo market was
slightly down. The median sale price in Palo Alto is $1,534,000 as opposed to
$1,542,000 in 2015 (a decrease of 0.5%) and the sale to list ratio is106.6%. In Menlo Park the median sale price decreased
5.7% from $1,343,000 in 2015 to $1,267,000 in 2016.
About the same number of homes sold during the
first half of 2016 as sold during the first half of 2015. 170 houses
sold in Palo Alto (compared to 165 in 2015), 152 houses sold in Menlo
Park (compared to 150 houses in 2015) and 37 houses sold in Atherton
(compared to 39 houses in 2015).
The stabilization of our
local market was not surprising after the prices reached stratospheric level
and for the following reasons:
1-
Chinese interest in
our local real estate market has slowed down.
2-
Fewer homeowners elected to
upgrade due to the significant increase to home prices in recent years.
3-
The capital gain and other charges that seller
has to pay when they sale their homes discouraged many sellers from
downgrading.
The
Bay Area has the strongest economy in the entire country, and nearly in the
entire world. Job growth spurred by the incredible resurgence of the technology
sector in the Bay Area will keep the values of real estate assets high across
the region as long as the economy is doing well.
The
Federal Reserve has kept interest rates at rock bottom for several years as a
way to pull the economy out of the Great Recession. Interest rates currently
are still at historic lows. It is possible that the Feds will raise interest
rates by the end of the year but the increase will not be significant to affect
the market by itself.
The
question on everybody’s mind is: are we going to hit another bubble soon?
In our
local market real estate and tech rise and decline together, but I doubt that
this time we will witness a bubble. We witnessed a slight price correction this
year that I predict will likely continue for a couple of years. Also the more
stringent lending criteria that the Feds put in place reduce the likelihood of
a bubble.
Should
I buy a house now?
The
question I hear often from my clients is should I buy a house now or wait in
the hope that prices will fall further?
In the
past and during recessions, the local market experienced an adjustment of up to
20% from the absolute high, and greater adjustments for upper-end properties.
It is hard to guess when that kind of adjustment might happen again.
The
real estate market goes through cycles. Buyers who try to wait for prices to
reach the bottom before buying may miss the opportunity to buy. My
recommendation therefore is to think strategically about when you want to buy
and what kind of house you would like to buy and decide the risks that you are
willing to take. If you find the right house for you, you may want to buy it
now rather than wait for a market adjustment.
For
sellers, the market appears to have reached a peak and prices have stabilized
or are on the way down for some cities. Therefore It is a good time to sell
before prices go further down and interest rates go higher and before the
fundamentals in the economy change.
*Please
share my semi-annual report with your friends who might be looking to buy or
sell their home. I will be happy to answer any questions or discuss in further
detail the state of the real estate market.
*Statistics sources are from MLS and do not include private
sales
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